US Politics-2022

[beancounter]

As the Forum's eternal optimist, I think this kind of stuff should turn away so many people from voting from here.... but then this IS Arizona.

As someone commented in another forum I'm in, "I've never seen so many Republicans willing to cut their own throats just to "own the Libs".

 

[Second Summer]

So, how did the midterm elections go over there? Results have not featured prominently in my news feed over here. My wife, who is from Michigan, was relatively happy under the circumstances. Looks like the House is a lost cause for the Dems, though?

 

[Jamie in Chile]

I've had a look at it seems

the results will either be as pollsters expected or slightly better for Democrats
house is probably a win for Republicans
Senate is too close to call for now
Florida is confirmed as no longer a swing state, it's now a red state
Rust belt is leaning slightly bluer at the moment than in the past
Trump-backed elections deniers had mixed results but perhaps a bit more bad than good

 

[Jamie in Chile]

On the senate, the score is reported by some at 48-48 but it seems very likely Alaska to go Republican so say 48-49 really

Democrats need 2 out of 3 of

Georgia - looks like a run off election again. Democrats got more in the first round by a little, so they have a 60/40 edge maybe

Nevada - Republicans are winning but too early to call - 538 reports more of the remaining ballots to be counted are mail in, which could favour democrats EDIT: Betting markets for this state actually make Democrats more likely to win it by about 70:30

Arizona - Democrats are up 51% to 46% with 69% of votes counted, however 538 has reported that more of the remaining votes are in-person votes which could lean R, so the lead is not as good as it looks - however I see one network and one TV pundit lean Dem on this one, say 60/40 Dem

Remember the senate tiebreaker is the Vice President, so Democrats need 50-50 to win but Republicans need 49-51

It looks indeed likely it will end up 50-50 or 49-51

How Election Week 2022 Went Down | FiveThirtyEight

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Just looked on the betting markets, hope they are right, because the markets are more optimistic than my analysis above, they have the Dems at 80% for the Senate and the Republicans with a 20% chance

PredictIt

www.predictit.org

2022 Midterms Live Forecast

The most accurate real-time forecasts, powered by the world's largest prediction market, Polymarket.

polymarket.com

Betfair Exchange | Best Odds Online, Back and Lay Betting

www.betfair.com

For the house it is the reverse the Republicans at 80% chance, and Democrats at 20%

 

[PTree15]

I really hope Warnock wins the runoff. I'm a little worried about people who voted for the Libertarian candidate, as I think Walker might get more than a few of those votes.

My state, Connecticut, still has one U.S. House seat that's too close to call. The other four, all Democrats, won reelection. If Jahana Hayes loses in the 5th District, that would be a flip for the GOP.

 

[Chryssie]

While I am disappointed in the results in Florida, it was expected. One bright spot is that a 25 year old progressive won the seat vacated by Val Demings who lost to Rubio.

Florida Democrat Maxwell Alejandro Frost becomes first Gen Z candidate to win House seat

Frost, a 25-year-old gun reform and social justice activist, ran in a heavily blue Orlando-area district being relinquished by Democratic Rep. Val Demings, who challenged Republican Sen. Marco Rubio this year.

www.pbs.org

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Politico reports:

Virtually every swing-state denialist candidate for governor, attorney general or secretary of state was defeated. Democratic governors in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will serve as bulwarks to keep their elections fair; Democrats actually gained control of the Legislature in Michigan, and Republicans did not win veto-proof majorities in Wisconsin or North Carolina.

That sounds good. Could be that today has made it less likely that Trump can overturn the 2024 result in the case of a narrow defeat.

Here is the source, but not recommending you read the whole article, just sourcing my above quote

Opinion | If You’re Breathing a Sigh of Relief About the Midterms, Just Wait - POLITICO

www.politico.com

 

[Lou]

California Rocks.
I got my mail in ballot in the mail. Did not have to request one, every registered voter gets one.
Filled it out yesterday morning and walked over to the nearest mail box and dropped it in.
This morning got an email that said it was received.
then an hour later I got an email that said it was counted!

Around half of all the votes have been counted. I didn't do a deep dive but it looks like most of the races have been called.

 

[KLS52]

California Rocks.
I got my mail in ballot in the mail. Did not have to request one, every registered voter gets one.
Filled it out yesterday morning and walked over to the nearest mail box and dropped it in.
This morning got an email that said it was received.
then an hour later I got an email that said it was counted!

Around half of all the votes have been counted. I didn't do a deep dive but it looks like most of the races have been called.

It was the same here in Connecticut when I voted in 2020. I also got emails saying it was received/counted.

 

[silva]

Ohio was so disappointing, I think the Board of Ed candidate and parks levy was all voted on that won, and our congresswoman Shontel Brown
VD Vance . Tim Ryan really did run an abysmal campaign. He was ALL in for getting moderate republicans to the point of alienating his own party (like the majority of the dems )
I thought the race for governor would have been closer.

It really feels like we have Republicans and trumplicans, and the progressive Democrats are a third party the other two team up to fight

 

[Jamie in Chile]

This will be an interest test of who do we trust to get a sense of who's going to win

The mainstream media or the betting markets

At the time of writing the BBC reports the senate is "too close to call" while CNN reports that "control of the senate is still in the balance" and MSNBC says something similar. Guardian says "remain in balance". None of them - at least not on the front pages of their site - are telling their viewers that one side is favourite, or that there is a likely lean one way or the other

Meanwhile the betting markets that were saying 80% chance of democrats winning the Senate are now saying 90%

90%! And the media is calling it as if it's a 50/50 race

If Democrats get to 50-49 and don't even need the runoff to claim control of the senate, that's a win for the idea that you should follow betting markets rather than the media to get an idea of who wins

If Republicans win the senate, it's a defeat for that idea

Nevada may be the key. Republicans are in the lead on votes counted so far but betting markets are predicting it will turn

 

[Lou]

Does the senate come down to a runoff between Warnock and Walker (again)?

I can't understand how so many people in Georgia prefer Walker. For once it can't be explained as racism - they are both black.
Warnock is a pastor with a PhD in philosophy.
He was the minister at MLK's old church.

Walker is a college drop out and probably has a traumatic brain injury. (Ninety-nine percent of former NFL players have CTE.) If you think that is an unfair characterization - just listen to the guy.
And let's not even consider his claim to have a mental illness.

Maybe in Georgia they get mixed up cause both guys last name's start with W.

 

[PTree15]

This will be an interest test of who do we trust to get a sense of who's going to win

The mainstream media or the betting markets

At the time of writing the BBC reports the senate is "too close to call" while CNN reports that "control of the senate is still in the balance" and MSNBC says something similar. Guardian says "remain in balance". None of them - at least not on the front pages of their site - are telling their viewers that one side is favourite, or that there is a likely lean one way or the other

Meanwhile the betting markets that were saying 80% chance of democrats winning the Senate are now saying 90%

90%! And the media is calling it as if it's a 50/50 race

If Democrats get to 50-49 and don't even need the runoff to claim control of the senate, that's a win for the idea that you should follow betting markets rather than the media to get an idea of who wins

If Republicans win the senate, it's a defeat for that idea

Nevada may be the key. Republicans are in the lead on votes counted so far but betting markets are predicting it will turn

But the bottom line is you have to wait until the count is complete. Anything can happen, and the media trying to predict it one way or the other will be seen as bias, regardless of how on-point the particular betting market is. It's still betting, despite all the algorithms likely being used to determine the various scenarios. And the Senate is 49-48 for the GOP right now, so that is pretty much 50-50, regardless of what the odds are.

 

[Lou]

Maybe in Georgia they get mixed up cause both guys last name's start with W.

or maybe this helps explain it

https://www.reddit.com/r/facepalm/comments/yptuhx

 

[PTree15]

Does the senate come down to a runoff between Warnock and Walker (again)?

I can't understand how so many people in Georgia prefer Walker. For once it can't be explained as racism - they are both black.
Warnock is a pastor with a PhD in philosophy.
He was the minister at MLK's old church.

Walker is a college drop out and probably has a traumatic brain injury. (Ninety-nine percent of former NFL players have CTE.) If you think that is an unfair characterization - just listen to the guy.
And let's not even consider his claim to have a mental illness.

Maybe in Georgia they get mixed up cause both guys last name's start with W.

As crazy as this sounds, I don't think you can discount the whole sports hero-worship factor with Walker. I mean, look at Tommy Tuberville. No way should that guy have won an election. SEC football is massive in Georgia. Walker went to UGa and won a national title and the Heisman. He's a Georgia sports legend.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Man, the US is slow to count votes. Most other countries announce the results by the morning of the next day at the latest! Sometimes the celebrations are in full flow about 2 hours after voting centres close.

Arizona and Nevada are SO slow - although I checked and there are plenty of other states really slow as well just that no-one notices because the result has already been declared before the counting is finished. The same thing happened in 2020 as I recall.

I propose they change the system by 2024. Can they allow postal votes a little earlier, and start counting some of them a bit earlier (perhaps count whatever postal votes arrived before the day while people are voting, and announce these as polls close)? Can the federal government make some funds available for Georgia, Nevada and Arizona to have extra staff available in 2024 please? Or do something.

I really don't think America needs a few days of this dragged out uncertainty, it can't be ideal for the mental health of the country or its economic or political productivity. OK, it's not a huge deal but it wouldn't be that hard to fix.

 

[silva]

Man, the US is slow to count votes. Most other countries announce the results by the morning of the next day at the latest! Sometimes the celebrations are in full flow about 2 hours after voting centres close.

Arizona and Nevada are SO slow - although I checked and there are plenty of other states really slow as well just that no-one notices because the result has already been declared before the counting is finished. The same thing happened in 2020 as I recall.

I propose they change the system by 2024. Can they allow postal votes a little earlier, and start counting some of them a bit earlier (perhaps count whatever postal votes arrived before the day while people are voting, and announce these as polls close)? Can the federal government make some funds available for Georgia, Nevada and Arizona to have extra staff available in 2024 please? Or do something.

I really don't think America needs a few days of this dragged out uncertainty, it can't be ideal for the mental health of the country or its economic or political productivity. OK, it's not a huge deal but it wouldn't be that hard to fix.

It's bad
Every state should have the same standards to make voting accessible for everyone, with clear rules without fluff and nonsense
Nothing should be declared till every vote is counted

 

[PTree15]

Man, the US is slow to count votes. Most other countries announce the results by the morning of the next day at the latest! Sometimes the celebrations are in full flow about 2 hours after voting centres close.

Arizona and Nevada are SO slow - although I checked and there are plenty of other states really slow as well just that no-one notices because the result has already been declared before the counting is finished. The same thing happened in 2020 as I recall.

I propose they change the system by 2024. Can they allow postal votes a little earlier, and start counting some of them a bit earlier (perhaps count whatever postal votes arrived before the day while people are voting, and announce these as polls close)? Can the federal government make some funds available for Georgia, Nevada and Arizona to have extra staff available in 2024 please? Or do something.

I really don't think America needs a few days of this dragged out uncertainty, it can't be ideal for the mental health of the country or its economic or political productivity. OK, it's not a huge deal but it wouldn't be that hard to fix.

Back in the old days (1980s and '90s, lol), we voted on machines with levers and a handle. When you entered the voting booth and moved the handle over, a curtain would close behind you and unlock the levers for the ballot. When you were done voting, you moved the handle back and your votes were automatically tallied. Most results were known within hours of the polls closing, unless there were technical issues.

We never had to wait days for results unless a race required a recount. And that usually took only a few days. But the machines became too expensive to move/maintain, so a lot of towns went to paper ballots and the voting tabulators. You fill out your ballot with a pen/marker and then you feed the ballot into the tabulator. I miss those old machines. I remember the first time I had to vote by paper ballot. I was like WTF, are we in the dark ages?

 

[Lou]

Here in california, my mail in ballot was counted before the end of Election Day. And I had mailed it just the day before.

I used to go to a polling place and vote. For the last couple of years we voted on what looked like an iPad. And this is an assumption but I'm gueesing that the ballot Is counted a few milliseconds after the voter pushes the button that turns it in.

however some areas in California take longer. I think the the issue is with when they get around to counting the mail in ballots. I think those districts delay on purpose - but I'm just guessing.