US Politics 2023

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Jamie in Chile said:
I am English and this looks like English football (soccer) fans, possibly one of the over exaggerated celebrations of a goal during the 2021 Euros when it became overly fashionable to throw drinks into the air after a goal.
Click to expand...
I thought I posted this already...
Anyway, here it is.

the video was fake, of course, though some who shared it may not have been aware of that fact. Created by digitally editing an existing (and real) YouTube video of a crowd celebrating a soccer victory in England in 2016, the altered clip seemingly originated with the X (formerly Twitter) account of Project Lincoln, which describes itself as "a political action committee formed in late 2019 by former and current moderate Republicans." The group is known for its strongly anti-Trump stance.​
​
the original, unedited caption, "Fans at Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol, celebrate England winner against Wales at Euro 2016":​

www.snopes.com

Video of Crowd Celebrating Release of Trump's Mugshot Is Fake

This isn't the first time a 2016 video of a crowd in England celebrating a soccer victory has been repurposed for political gain.
www.snopes.com www.snopes.com
 
Just saw this in the New York Times:

"we have months of polling in the shadow of these prosecutions, and it strongly suggests that along with the core Trump bloc (30 percent to 40 percent of the Republican electorate, let’s say) that will vote for him no matter what, there’s another bloc that’s open to alternatives but rallies to him when he’s perceived to be liberalism’s major target"

Opinion | The Trump Trial Date Is a Big Mistake (paywall)

That looks accurate to me, I have also noticed that in the polling.

The attempts to prosecute him for various (alleged) crimes seem to increase his chance of winning.

The only exception to that might be if he is actually convicted of a crime with a significant jail sentence attached to it. A number of the Republican contenders - maybe all of them - might be banking on this possibility as their only realistic chance.

I do hope that they are doing a lot of planning and preparation for the possibility of riots, shootings, letter bombs, and whatever else might happen if Trump goes to jail for a significant period - not saying that's likely but something worth planning for even if it only has a small chance.
 
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Jamie in Chile said:
Just saw this in the New York Times:
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The justice department and the DAs do Not (and should not) take politics into account. They see a crime so they indict.

And yes, 1/3 to 1/2 of the Republican voters are going to vote for him. No matter what. but that is still not a majority of ALL voters. And not only will almost all Democratic voters vote for Biden. But many independents and some Republican voters will vote for him too.

However your concerns are still valid.

Some things that help me sleep at night.

There is some talk that we might not even allow him on the ballot. something about the 13th amendment.

He is going to be pretty busy going to court and paying for lawyers. so he might not be able to campaign as well.

The millennials which do not have a good track record of getting to the poll and are a significant number of voters, are being "activated" by Republicans. The Number one demographic that is being affected by abortion and contraception laws are Young (millennial) women. Who do not want to lose the rights that they have become accustomed to. And there is some splash over - where they encourage their moms, boyfriends and husbands to fight for their rights.

they have also been watching what is happening with their student debt. Positive points to Biden.
and its those same young people who are going to be living in a dsytopian world of global warming if we keep burning fossil fuels like the republicans want to.

Then there are also Retired people - even if they are Republican they want to keep Medicare and SS. Poor people want to keep Obamacare.

And although it's not a level playing field - the Republicans seem to be making enemies in every category.

oh. and if Trump somehow loses in the primary - He will not be able to control himself and just destroy who ever beats him.

But what keeps me up at night is what happens if he loses the general by just a little. but then I guess that is better than if he wins.
 
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It's so frustrating to see Trump get away with so much. I really hope the Georgia case is the one that puts him behind bars. I don't even want to think of the possibility of him winning. There are far too many people who love him and will vote for him if he's able to run a campaign.
 
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Polls and bettings odds still show Biden neck and neck in a hypothetical matchup with Trump
 
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www.theguardian.com

Third party candidates will help Trump win | Robert Reich

If a third-party candidate takes even a small part of the anti-Trump vote away from Biden, Trump is likely to be returned to the White House
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

I agree with this one.

No left-wing third party candidates please. No-one should run as a third party candidate unless they´re pretty sure that they won´t help Trump.

The UK currently has a right wing government even though there were more left wing votes. The reason is the left wing votes were divided amongst several competing parties and the system rewards whoever gets the most votes, even if it´s under 50%.
 
I think the media is over rating the Taylor Swift effect.
First off it was Voter Registration Day - so of course one day registration rates were going to be up.
However they are up by record numbers. Of course a lot of those voter registrations were by 18 year olds since that is the first time many of them could register - you expect that.

Regardless this is the thing, the under 35 crowd now makes up 25% of the electorate. In general younger people are more liberal and more likely democratic voters.

The other thing is that gerrymandering can't be used against young people. Well in Texas they make it so you can't vote in the district you go to college in - watering down the college student effect you get in University Towns. But you will find young people everywhere.

On of the rules of thumb is that in an election, one third vote Democratic, one third vote Republican, and one third don't vote. So getting the millennials and such out to vote can have a very large effect on an election.

www.cbsnews.com

New data suggests Taylor Swift boosts voter registration, especially among young voters

New data suggests Taylor Swift has played a role in boosting voter registration in Pennsylvania, especially among young voters, who are becoming more significant in Pa. politics.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com

Swift states that systemic racism in this country is “terrifying [and] sickening” and that discrimination on the basis of “sexual orientation or gender is WRONG [sic].” Everyone should agree that discriminating against anyone on any grounds is morally wrong. But I know minorities sometimes aren’t given as big of a platform to break those outdated stereotypes due to the systemic racism in this country. That’s why Swift’s post is so important.​

troychariot.org

The Power of a Pop Star: Taylor Swift’s Political Impact

On Sunday, Oct. 7, singer-songwriter Taylor Swift wrote a post on Instagram that voiced her support for the Democratic candidates in her native Tennessee. This is significant because Swift was seemingly apolitical until this point, and different groups used her as a figurehead for white...
troychariot.org troychariot.org
 
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Ha! There was even a Swiftie bump to Sunday Night Football.



1695757712348.png
 
I don’t “follow” her but I like her music.
 
silva said:
But he's from Cleveland Heights, so....
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She was born in PA. Moved to Kansas. The chiefs are from Kansas. They were playing the Chicago bears. they might not care.

I might have been jealous, the 49ers have a good tight end, too. but he is already married. And she is gorgeous. And our running back is married to Miss Universe. And our QB just got engaged.

1695770705260.png
 
this is a pretty old clip, but its getting a lot of attention lately.
Mostly because Taylor and Kelcie are going viral.
Anyway, thought it was worth reposting
Plus.....
it goes along with my belief that millennials will save democracy.
Hey, maybe we can re-write that to Swifties Save Democracy.

 
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Now that Mike Johnson has been elected to Speaker of the House....
I am somewhat worried that he might cause some problems with Biden's 2024 certification.
Two reasons I'm not going to lose sleep over this.
1. Congress passed the Electoral Count Reform Act 2022. Supposedly this closes the door on any Republican shenanigans when it comes to certifying Biden in 2024. Most of the guys asked about this on the news feel pretty confident too.
2. January 2024 is 14 months away. Dollars to donuts that Mike Johnson is no longer speaker.

However I wonder if the Democrats missed an opportunity with Tom Emmer. He was nominated for Speaker but withdrew after Trump tweeted negatively against him. (BTW, he is one of the only two House members who voted to certify the 2020 election. Although he didn't have enough Republican votes to get elected, if the Democrats backed him he would have had enough.

I suspect that the Democrats are hoping that the situation in the House continues to devolve to the point that the Republican leadership has no choice but to negotiate a deal with the Democrats. Or that the Republicans continue without being able to effectively govern and trigger a blue tide in 2024. The problem with the second option is that I don't think we can wait that long.

Maybe they are counting on both things.
 
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Lou said:
Now that Mike Johnson has been elected to Speaker of the House....
I am somewhat worried that he might cause some problems with Biden's 2024 certification.
Two reasons I'm not going to lose sleep over this.
1. Congress passed the Electoral Count Reform Act 2022. Supposedly this closes the door on any Republican shenanigans when it comes to certifying Biden in 2024. Most of the guys asked about this on the news feel pretty confident too.
2. January 2024 is 14 months away. Dollars to donuts that Mike Johnson is no longer speaker.

However I wonder if the Democrats missed an opportunity with Tom Emmer. He was nominated for Speaker but withdrew after Trump tweeted negatively against him. (BTW, he is one of the only two House members who voted to certify the 2020 election. Although he didn't have enough Republican votes to get elected, if the Democrats backed him he would have had enough.

I suspect that the Democrats are hoping that the situation in the House continues to devolve to the point that the Republican leadership has no choice but to negotiate a deal with the Democrats. Or that the Republicans continue without being able to effectively govern and trigger a blue tide in 2024. The problem with the second option is that I don't think we can wait that long.

Maybe they are counting on both things.
Click to expand...
Sadly, there just isn't enough bipartisanship in the House to persuade the Dems to vote for a Republican. This party garbage is ruining any sort of cooperation. It's why I refuse to join a party, even though I swing more Democrat. I hate the party system because it seems to become more important than governing properly and representing the people who put these clowns in office.

I, too, kind of think the Dems are just going to sit back and hope that the GOP implodes and brings on the blue tide, because I can't honestly believe that this MAGA speaker will have the support of the more moderate wing of the GOP, such as it is. So nothing of any consequence is going to get done, and there are just a couple of weeks before the next debt ceiling deadline.
 
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PTree15 said:
Sadly, there just isn't enough bipartisanship in the House to persuade the Dems to vote for a Republican. This party garbage is ruining any sort of cooperation. It's why I refuse to join a party, even though I swing more Democrat. I hate the party system because it seems to become more important than governing properly and representing the people who put these clowns in office.

I, too, kind of think the Dems are just going to sit back and hope that the GOP implodes and brings on the blue tide, because I can't honestly believe that this MAGA speaker will have the support of the more moderate wing of the GOP, such as it is. So nothing of any consequence is going to get done, and there are just a couple of weeks before the next debt ceiling deadline.
Click to expand...

This reminds me of a cartoon ( I wish I saved it). it had trump driving a bus, his hair was on fire and a bunch of kids at the back of the bus were laughing hysterically. Unfortunately the bus was going over a cliff.

Yes. I am looking forward to the GOP imploding. but there is real governing that needs to be done.

I guess best case scenario is that the Republican in the house become desperate enough to elect a Democrat as the speaker. The second best scenario is that a moderate Republican gets voted in. But that was probably Tom Emmer and when the Dems had a chance to back him - they sat on their hands.
 
Lou said:
This reminds me of a cartoon ( I wish I saved it). it had trump driving a bus, his hair was on fire and a bunch of kids at the back of the bus were laughing hysterically. Unfortunately the bus was going over a cliff.

Yes. I am looking forward to the GOP imploding. but there is real governing that needs to be done.

I guess best case scenario is that the Republican in the house become desperate enough to elect a Democrat as the speaker. The second best scenario is that a moderate Republican gets voted in. But that was probably Tom Emmer and when the Dems had a chance to back him - they sat on their hands.
Click to expand...
I can't imagine the GOP voting for any Democrat in this current climate. The party politics won't allow it unfortunately.
 
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