'The biggest El Niño event since the 1870s': 'Super' El Niño is now the most likely scenario by the end of this year — and the humanitarian cost could be huge
A "very strong" El Niño is now the most probable scenario for the October-to-February period.
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In fact, the impending El Niño may itself break records. "Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s," Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany, wrote on X on May 5.
If a "super" El Niño does occur, it could rival the strongest on record: a catastrophic 1877 event that spurred the 1876-to-1878 global famine. The famine killed over 50 million people, or 3% of the world's population at the time.
"What is different now is that our atmosphere and oceans are substantially warmer than they were in the 1870s, which means the associated extremes could be more extreme," Singh said
