Man-Machine Predictions about our dystopian future

[Second Summer]

Let's share our predictions for the future!

Below are some of my own not-so-thought-out speculations which are inspired by my recent thoughts on the rise of artificial intelligence:

• China and Russia: China will soon be considered a super power and will challenge the USA for hegemony. Taiwan will be swallowed up by China, the significance of which western countries will try to downplay. Russia will be weakened by war, sanctions and internal division, in turn becoming a client state of China. Both China and Russia will struggle with population decline, as will all industrialised nations.
• A new cold war is generally recognised, and China & friends will be evicted from institutions such as the WTO. Other countries will be forced to choose between the two systems: The plutocratic liberal-democratic capitalist club lead by the USA, or the league of autocratic-oligarchic states lead by China. A few large regional powers will attempt to stay neutral/non-aligned with varying degrees of success.
• The USA will also decline in power and influence due to internal division and its broken political system, but in the end a bare minimum of cohesion and business-as-usual is upheld thanks to the sense of a shared external enemy in China. The situation will be similar in Europe.
• Capitalism vs society: The capitalist elites continue to hoard wealth, and capitalism enters a stage where economic inequality is at an all-time, final extreme: The rise of AI will lead to mass unemployment and the working classes - many of whom are no longer working - will be radicalised, leading to social unrest. This is not helped by supply chain problems and the collapse of state-funded systems for health care and education. Governments will be forced to pay a universal basic income, and will reform or re-invent health care and education.
• The environment: Governments will continue to do basically nothing of consequence about stopping climate change. Hundreds of millions of people will become climate refugees and food production will be increaingly disrupted and unreliable due to sea-level rises, floods, hurricanes, extreme heat events and so on.
• AI systems: The most powerful AI systems will be owned and used by the cloud giants. These will be available for hire at exorbitant prices, and will be used sometimes for nefarious purposes such as detecting IT system vulnerabilities and helping to develop cyber-weapons. Smaller AIs will be available at more reasonable prices or even for free, provided that you have sufficient computing resources.
• Mental health: People will struggle even more with mental health as meaning and purpose in life become ever harder to find. Many will seek refuge in religion and sects. Online games with a social aspect will be helpful for some. Suicide rates will be rampant.
• AIs vs community/social interaction: For numerous reasons we will want to know whether someone online is human or AI but this will soon become impossible in most contexts. As a consequence, traditional online meeting places (social media, forums, chat rooms, comments sections, online games) will decline in popularity in favour of perceived human-only arenas free of AIs and "the algorithm". However, many people will actually prefer 'silicone companionship', i.e. AI "friends" - the descendants of Alexa and Siri.
• In the IT sector AIs will first be used as a tool to help solve problems/tasks. In the second phase managers/seniors will be able to use AIs to replace human developers to some extent, where humans are only needed to review the code before it goes live. This trend will lead to declining numbers of people choosing a software development career, and a decline in software development skills in the sector. Eventually, only the AIs know what is a going on in the code, so AIs will need to review AI code. What can possibly go wrong?

Jobs that are safe for now:
Capitalist, politician, psychologist, friend-for-hire, dog whisperer, sect leader

Jobs that will be replaced:
Everything else

 

[Brian W]

...and the microchip containing the universal barcode that is already being used by some in Sweden will become the only means of buying and selling. A leader of several nations will rise and set himself above all other gods. He will acheive peace in the middle east for a time but will turn against Israel and the remaining church. Israel and the remaining church will be heavily persecuted for a time and then Jesus will return with his followers to rule justly and compassionately for a thousand years after which the devil will be let loose for a short time before the final, permanent end of the world as we know it. ( My best understanding of Revelation. )

 

[David3]

The sci fi novel "Earth" describes a very interesting vision of the near future (year 2038). The author is David Brin, a winner of both the Hugo and Nebula awards for science fiction. I found the book worrying, but also hopeful. The main plot is very unlikely, but its societal backdrop is plausible and interesting.

Amazon.com

 

[David3]

The "solar punk" fiction genre is filled with cautionary, but often hopeful visions of the future.

 

[David3]

Environmentally, governments may be doing more than you assume. Over the past 15 years, the United States has reduced its coal use by about 50%. Some states have enacted mandates for much more energy-efficient vehicles. Home appliances and light bulbs have become much more efficient. Kansas generates about 38% of its electricity from wind. On certain springtime days, California is generating over 80% of its electricity from renewables. Many other U.S. states are also increasing their use of renewable electricity.

 

[Emma JC]

I am very anti-big brother and yet when I think about a different future I think of Star Trek and how all of those things that we worry invade our privacy are just the norm on the show and many of us love it.... such a dichotomy.

Emma JC
Find your vegan soulmate or just a friend. www.spiritualmatchmaking.com

 

[Sax]

We've been in a period of unusual peace and stability. That's likely coming to an end for a little while. It could get really bad, or things might just revert to the kind of instability that has historically been the norm.

For all the progress we've made as a species there isn't much reason to think we're any happier and more fulfilled than our ancestors. And in the long run if we lose some of that progress that doesn't mean the individuals living will be less happy or fulfilled.

I think after a coming age of upheaval society will be nearly unrecognizable to those of us living today, on an even greater scale than pre- to post-industrial revolution change. It may not look like the cyborg-like transhumanism we envision today but the tightening symbiosis of humans and algorithms will be one of the biggest developments in human history.

 

[David3]

“Other generations perceived a plethora of swords hanging over their heads. But generally what they feared were shadows, for neither they nor their gods could actually end the world. Fate might reap an individual, a family, or even a whole nation, but not the entire world. Not then.
We, in the mid-twenty-first century, are the first to look up at a sword we ourselves forged, and know, with absolute certainty, it is real...”
― David Brin, Earth

 

[beancounter]

Republicans and Evangelical Christians will openly/officially merge as a single entity. They will achieve absolute political power through the use of an archaic voting mechanic known as the electoral college. They will enact draconian laws restricting woman's and non Christians rights. Criticism of the state will be a capital offense under this regime.

All consumer, employee and environmental protection laws will be eliminated. Social safety nets will be eliminated. Corps will continue to pay lower and lower tax rates, until it reaches zero.

The use of electric cars and alternative energy sources will be outlawed.

AI will replace all repetitive jobs first, then clerical, and then some professional. It will be a slower process than you might expect, simply because corporations are risk adverse, and expensive, unproven technologies will be viewed with a lot of trepidation.

 

[Lou]

“Other generations perceived a plethora of swords hanging over their heads. But generally what they feared were shadows, for neither they nor their gods could actually end the world. Fate might reap an individual, a family, or even a whole nation, but not the entire world. Not then.
We, in the mid-twenty-first century, are the first to look up at a sword we ourselves forged, and know, with absolute certainty, it is real...”
― David Brin, Earth

I would put that at the mid- twentieth century. Certainly since the Cold War and nuclear proliferation.

Oh, wait. was that just a typo. the mid twenty first century hasn't really started yet,

 

[silva]

I would put that at the mid- twentieth century. Certainly since the Cold War and nuclear proliferation.

Oh, wait. was that just a typo. the mid twenty first century hasn't really started yet,

The quote was from a futuristic science fiction book--'Earth'

 

[Lou]

The quote was from a futuristic science fiction book--'Earth'

I know. I have read it
Maybe it was a typo or error.
Oh wait.. looking at the quote again. it didn't actually say "we are the first" -- oh wait. it did.
I think people living in the mid-twentieth century were the first. The term nuclear winter was first coined in the 80s.

 

[David3]

How about this dire imagery, from the 1980 Yes song, "Machine Messiah"? I think that people were freaking out over the popular adoption of computers at that time:


"From time, the great healer,
The machine messiah is born.

Cables that carry the life to the cities we build.
Threads that link diamonds of life to the satanic mills.

Machine, machine messiah.
Take me into the fire.
Hold me, machine messiah
And show me
The strength of your singular eye."


The chilling conclusion of the song, from Yes' 2009 concert:

 

[David3]

Remember this 1983 computer-fear song from Trans-X? It's actually kind of prophetic:

Give me light, give me action,
At the touch of a button,
Flying through hyper-space,
In a computer interface.
Stop,
(Living on video, ) stop,
(Integrated circuits, ) stop,
(Sur un faisceau de lumieres.) stop.
(Is this reality?.)


The video shows guys who have become computer drones

Features an epic badass keytar solo at minute 2:24!

 

[silva]

"I don’t think anything could get any more 80’s than this."

 

[Envy]

The future of society has always struck me as being more banal than anything else.
It's a little bit like how past generations imagined flying cars or post-scarcity societies when the truth became far more boring.

 

[Second Summer]

The future of society has always struck me as being more banal than anything else.
It's a little bit like how past generations imagined flying cars or post-scarcity societies when the truth became far more boring.

Occasionally, though, big and abrupt changes have occurred: devastating wars (Am. civil war, WW1, WW2), dropping of atomic bombs on populated cities, the Holocaust, deliberate famines against millions of people (Ukraine by Stalin, India by colonial Britain), outbreaks of highly contagious and deadly diseases (Black Death, Spanish Flu, COVID-19), financial meltdowns, the meteorite that ended the dinosaur era ...

I'm not sure I would describe any of that as boring! Boring would be great. I would love a boring future!

 

[g0rph]

Ok.
Veganism.
Bio-meat will take over within 10 years. Once cheaper to make than breeding animals it will become standard, pushing uptake of non-animal diets.
There will be holdouts, especially in the Wild-South of the US. But public opinion will turn and slowly the raising and killing of sentient beings will become illegal.

AI.
Within 20-30 years there will be a technological singularity. This means that computers will surpass humans in intelligence. Once this happens there are any number of ways it could go. (I will remain optimistic)
The AI can rewrite and improve its own code, create robots, and will rapidly gain intelligence that no human can currently dream of.
A truly sentient AI will emerge. Within a year, money will be meaningless. The AI will control all aspects of life. Nano-bots will be created that will cure all disease. Many humans will undergo cyborg enhancement techniques. All the world's information will be accessible by anyone, just by thinking about it.
Skeletal modification will mean massively increased strength. Aging will be a thing of the past.

Capitalism will have ceased to be, outside the simple exchanging of, for example human-made art (music, literature, etc) and goods such as pottery, clothes etc.
The advanced nature of the AI (and modified humans) will mean colonising other planets will become possible, and inevitable. Wormhole technology will enable us to travel to other star systems.
Earth's human population will decline, leading to an increase in less intelligent, native species. Some of its inhabitants no longer needing to work for a living will get lazy. (Wall-E anyone?).

 

[Lou]

Occasionally, though, big and abrupt changes have occurred: devastating wars (Am. civil war, WW1, WW2), dropping of atomic bombs on populated cities, the Holocaust, deliberate famines against millions of people (Ukraine by Stalin, India by colonial Britain), outbreaks of highly contagious and deadly diseases (Black Death, Spanish Flu, COVID-19), financial meltdowns, the meteorite that ended the dinosaur era ...

I'm not sure I would describe any of that as boring! Boring would be great. I would love a boring future!

There is a traditional Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times.

 

[Lou]

The AI can rewrite and improve its own code, create robots, and will rapidly gain intelligence that no human can currently dream of.

There are so many science fiction plots that have explored this.
Of course Terminator.

I think it was Vonnegut who wrote a short story about the last man on earth with a job. I think he was sort of a fixer/creative problem solver.